AGP Executive Report

Gaza Ceasefire Diplomacy: Egypt is set to host a meeting of mediators after Hamas and other Palestinian factions approved the roadmap for the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, with Cairo aiming to confirm all parties’ commitments—Israel has not yet formally endorsed it. Wildfire Risk to Farms: Greece is battling fast-moving wildfires near Athens and Porto Germeno as gale-force winds destroy homes and threaten farms and livestock; in Türkiye, the agriculture minister says most fires are contained, but a new blaze near Marmara Island threatens farmland and settlements. Oman Industrial Agriculture Push: Oman’s Ibri Industrial City says it secured about OMR25mn in investments in H1 2026, including food manufacturing and organic fertiliser projects. Water Management for Crops: Kerala opened spillway and barrages in Alappuzha to release excess floodwater and protect agriculture while monitoring river inflows. Food Security via Crops: Kenya’s Turkana farmers are harvesting orange-fleshed sweet potatoes at irrigation schemes, using both roots and leaves to improve nutrition and resilience. Agribusiness Trade Links: India and Rwanda launched a joint trade committee to expand trade and business-to-business ties, including processed agricultural products. Iraq Pilgrimage & Rural Economy: Iran’s Arbaeen pilgrims continue toward Karbala, with many resting and cooling in irrigation canals along rural farmland routes.

Food Security & Inputs: UN chief António Guterres urged an end to fighting across the Middle East, warning that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are driving up food and fertilizer prices and pushing millions toward acute hunger; the UN World Food Programme warned up to 45 million people could face acute food insecurity. Trade & Shipping Risk: Saudi SABIC said it currently sees no disruption to Red Sea shipments but is watching Bab el-Mandeb closely and is ready to reroute via GCC channels and the Suez Canal if attacks worsen. Agri-Conflict Impacts: Reports from the West Bank described a child injured by settler gunfire during an attack on a sheep farm, underscoring how violence is hitting rural livelihoods. Climate & Farm Diversification: Germany’s warming climate is shifting crop patterns, with farmers moving into heat-tolerant crops like watermelons while drought risk forces new risk-management thinking. Agri-Tech & Market Links: ZiraaLink highlighted efforts to connect African producers to Middle East buyers using digital tools to reduce supply-chain friction and improve trade reliability. Wildfire Pressure: Türkiye and Greece faced multiple wildfires, with smoke forcing emergency transfers in Athens—another reminder of how extreme weather can disrupt food systems and rural services.

Iraq Farmland Under Strain: Iraq’s historic farming areas are being hit by salinity and drought, with nearly 78% of the country already desertified or at risk of land degradation—threatening livelihoods and food security. Turkey Wildfire Fallout: Wildfires continue across Turkey and parts of Europe, forcing evacuations and raising fresh pressure on agriculture and rural water use as heat and wind fuel new blazes. Fuel Cost Squeeze: Diesel prices are set to rise in South Africa in August (about R2/litre), adding to input costs for farming and transport just as weather volatility is already cutting yields. UK Dairy Drought Stress: In England, prolonged heat and low rainfall are reducing milk output and pasture recovery, with some farms reporting sharp drops in production and higher feed needs. Palestinian Farm Attacks: Settlers set fire to Palestinian-owned agricultural land south of Nablus, damaging olive trees and obstructing firefighting access. Cambodia Shock Shield: Cambodia secured a $250m ADB loan to protect vulnerable households and support agricultural inputs amid Middle East-driven price volatility. Trade Logistics for Fresh Produce: UAE-Egypt air traffic rights are expanding over five years, boosting faster cargo capacity for perishable agricultural exports via UAE hubs. Ukraine Grain Exports Disrupted: Russia’s intensified attacks on Black Sea ports are constraining Ukraine’s agricultural shipments, with insurers and shipowners suspending calls—raising risks for harvest-season cash flows. EU Climate Warning: EU crisis chief Hadja Lahbib called wildfires a “wake-up call,” pushing back on climate deniers and urging more prevention investment.

Wildfire Risk and Food Supply: France and Spain are getting a brief wildfire reprieve, but the season is still raging across Europe, with Turkey also battling major blazes—an escalating climate pressure that can disrupt rural livelihoods and farm output. Red Sea Energy Shock: A Houthi strike has kept Saudi Aramco’s Jizan refinery complex offline for repairs until mid-August, tightening regional diesel availability and raising costs that ripple into agriculture. US Lettuce Fallout: A cyclospora outbreak tied to shredded lettuce has hit restaurant sales (Taco Bell down 2% in the latest quarter window), a reminder that food safety shocks can quickly become price and supply shocks. Middle East Farm Access Under Strain: In Syria’s Daraa province, residents say repeated Israeli incursions are blocking access to fields, delaying ploughing and seasonal work, and turning farming into a security risk. Trade and Inputs Pressure: Egypt is pushing expanded agricultural exports (including grapes, onions and tomatoes) while fertilizer and fuel cost pressures continue to loom across the region. Policy Fight Over Grants: US nonprofit groups sued USDA over grant conditions tied to diversity and immigration-related speech rules—another sign that funding rules can reshape who gets support for food and farm programs.

Climate Risk for Crops: A potentially record-strength El Niño is intensifying, with analysts warning it could bring drought or flooding to major farming regions and push food inflation higher, adding to pressure already felt from Ukraine and the Iran war. Turkey Wildfires & Farm Disruption: Turkey remains on high alert as hundreds are evacuated and crews battle multiple wildfires across provinces including Balıkesir, Çanakkale and Antalya, with the agriculture ministry reporting most blazes brought under control but risks still high. War’s Food-System Shock: Gaza’s dialysis crisis highlights how conflict-driven supply breakdowns can cripple essential services; for agriculture, the broader message is clear: war strains inputs, logistics and survival systems that keep rural economies functioning. Trade for Food Exports: The Philippines and Türkiye are moving to accredit 30 halal production facilities to expand poultry and food exports, with inspections and certification aimed at unlocking wider Mediterranean market access. Regional Development for Markets: Liberia’s new Gbarnga–Salayea road (81 km) is framed as a boost for farmers’ access to markets, supported by Saudi and other Arab development finance.

Fertile Land Under Pressure (Iraq): Iraq’s agriculture experts warn that tens of thousands of hectares of productive farmland are being converted into housing, hitting vegetable, tomato and potato output and raising import dependence. Water & Integration (Syria): Syria says most steps to integrate the SDF into state institutions are now in motion, including transfers tied to prisons, health, religious endowments, postal services, agriculture and water, with returns of displaced families continuing. Dairy Expansion (Qatar): Baladna reports H1 2026 growth in revenue and profit, with agricultural activities underway in Algeria and construction milestones for a new Adra manufacturing facility in Syria. Coffee Market (Arabica): Arabica coffee futures rise as Brazil harvest delays and falling exchange stocks tighten near-term supply. Input Costs (Fertilizer): Farmers in the region face higher fertilizer prices linked to global supply disruptions, forcing tough pre-harvest decisions. Agri Trade & Branding (Philippines): The Philippines renews work with its IP office to secure geographical indications for priority agri-fishery products, aiming to protect origin and boost export value. Agri Security & Infrastructure (Kuwait/Liberia): Kuwait’s KFAED backs road projects in Liberia to improve connectivity for farmers and traders. Livestock & Rural Life (Middle East-adjacent): Wildfire evacuations in Türkiye underscore how extreme heat and fire risk can disrupt rural livelihoods and services.

Trade & Market Access: Egypt and the Philippines signed an agreement for immediate entry of five Egyptian agricultural exports—grapes, onions, garlic, tomatoes and carrots—while both sides coordinate procedures for Egyptian potatoes, aiming to boost food-security trade ties. Regional Diplomacy for Agriculture: Pakistan and Kuwait agreed to deepen cooperation across trade, energy, labour and agriculture after talks led by Ishaq Dar and Kuwait’s FM, with plans to institutionalize regular high-level exchanges. Input Costs & Crop Protection: BASF reported resilient demand for crop protection products as farmers keep buying fungicides, herbicides and seed treatments despite weak profitability; volumes rose while pricing stayed under pressure. Agri-Logistics & Investment: Türkiye’s nature conservation push includes biological pest control via breeding and releasing tens of thousands of partridges and pheasants, with hunting banned in release areas for three years. Food Supply & Prices: Reuters notes Bunge lifted its 2026 outlook on stronger soybean and softseed processing, as the Iran-war-linked price rally encouraged Midwest farmers to sell more grain from storage. Water & Infrastructure Risk: Wildfires in Türkiye’s Muğla province spread from agricultural areas, triggering evacuations and highway closures—another reminder of how climate shocks can disrupt farming operations.

Border Trade & Connectivity: Syria plans to reopen the Al-Dabousiyah crossing with Lebanon in September after rehabilitation and modernization, upgrading passenger halls, service facilities, internal roads and the border bridge to speed cargo and traveler flows. Agri Markets & Inputs: Arabica coffee futures jumped on ICE as certified stocks fell to the lowest in nearly 2.5 years, with harvest delays in Brazil linked to slower rains; cocoa also edged up on improved West Africa crop prospects. Livestock & Biosecurity: New Zealand confirmed H5N1 in wild birds, warning that pest and bird control around farms is a key, often overlooked defense to stop spread into poultry and rural operations. Farm Economics & Weather Stress: Some arable farmers are reconsidering winter drilling after disappointing yields, high input costs and dry conditions that leave seedbeds hard and increase machinery wear. Regional Ag Trade: Iraq and Turkey agreed to deepen cooperation including agriculture as they push the Development Road corridor linking Iraq’s Grand Faw Port to Turkey and onward to Europe.

Fuel & diesel supply stress in Moldova: Moldova declared a 30-day state of alert in the energy sector and a separate 30-day hydrological alert to protect fuel and water services during market disruptions, with diesel stocks falling sharply and some stations reportedly out of supply; the plan includes faster customs clearance, “green corridors,” limits on speculative buying, and ensuring minimum domestic diesel/petrol stocks before exports. Monsoon risk for Pakistan: Pakistan’s Meteorological Department warned of a powerful monsoon spell from July 29, with heavy rain and thunderstorms expected across Punjab, Islamabad/Rawalpindi, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and parts of Balochistan, raising flash-flood and landslide concerns. Regional trade & agriculture links: Turkey has started restoring the Akyaka–Gyumri railway and preparing border infrastructure, with officials pointing to future cooperation opportunities including agriculture. Water for food in Kuwait: CGC won the lowest bid for a KD160m ($516m) southern Kuwait treated-water project aimed at supporting agricultural and food-security needs, though award letters are still pending. Climate volatility for farming: A new warning flags “Super El Niño” risks that could intensify droughts and floods, threatening crop cycles and food prices across markets already strained by Middle East conflict.

Heat & Fire Risk: North Africa is bracing for another extreme summer heatwave, with Morocco issuing an orange alert (up to 46°C), Algeria seeing shade temperatures near 49°C, and wildfires flaring across multiple provinces—raising compounding threats for farms and rural livelihoods. UN Accountability on Lebanon: UN rights chief Volker Türk warned that Israel’s conduct in southern Lebanon—displacement, destruction, and denial of returns—could amount to war crimes, with reports of damage to water, power, and agricultural land. West Bank Pressure on Food & Health: UN and rights groups condemned accelerated moves to legalise West Bank outposts and warned that closures around Nablus are disrupting ambulances and access to care, while violence is also damaging homes and agriculture structures. Fuel Cost Squeeze: Italy reintroduced a temporary diesel excise cut to cushion transport and farming businesses from Middle East-driven fuel price spikes. Coffee Supply Signals: Coffee prices jumped on fears heavy rain will disrupt Brazil’s harvest, tightening global supply. Trade & Agribusiness Links: Turkey is seeking to expand Philippines agricultural trade, with around 30 Turkish poultry facilities applying for export accreditation.

Egypt’s export push: Egypt’s investment and trade minister met DP World to use its logistics network to expand Egyptian exports into Africa, prioritising food and agricultural crops alongside chemicals and other sectors. Egypt state asset shake-up: President El Sisi ratified a law restructuring the military-linked “Future of Egypt” authority into a powerful economic body with control over state land, tax-free “sustainable development zones,” and investment funds—an expanded role that already includes wheat imports and fisheries. UAE heritage with water value: UNESCO added six Middle East and North Africa sites, including the UAE’s Wadi Wurayah, highlighting freshwater habitats in an arid landscape. Iraq governance and water-linked corruption: Iraqi authorities detained 31 people across seven corruption cases, including water resources and local administration, with major seizures reported. Regional instability hitting food access: In Syria’s south, reports of Israeli incursions included shelling near farmland, while in Ukraine’s occupied Kherson bread supply problems were linked to flour shortages and unsafe deliveries. Climate pressure on farming: Wildfires in France and Spain have displaced hundreds of thousands, adding another stressor for agriculture and rural livelihoods.

West Bank Violence and Land Attacks: Israeli settlers set fire to two mosques under construction and vandalised cars and agricultural land in Qusra and Kour, as tensions surge after deadly clashes near Tal; Palestinian officials warn the violence is being enabled by far-right politics and election-year restraint. Arrests and “New Farms” Policy: The IDF launched a large-scale West Bank arrest campaign, detaining 80+ Palestinians, while Israeli officials signalled intensified operations, more checkpoints, and plans tied to settlement expansion including “new farms.” Water as a War Target: Iran’s strikes on Kuwaiti power and desalination infrastructure are condemned as violations of international humanitarian law, with desalination described as the lifeline for most drinking water and knock-on risks for food production. Energy Shock to Food Systems: Middle East conflict-driven oil spikes are feeding into higher fuel and grocery costs and raising inflation risks across the region, with knock-on pressure on farm inputs and household food budgets. Biofuel Demand Cools: Philippines biofuel growth is slowing as higher pump prices and limited E20 rollout temper ethanol and biodiesel consumption. Rice Innovation: China reports a hybrid rice cloning breakthrough using the HUAXU gene, aiming to preserve high yields across generations and reduce the need to buy new seed each season.

West Bank Security: IDF commanders warn of “very tense days and weeks” as counterterror sweeps intensify after a sharp rise in lone attacks and semi-military cells, with officials citing smuggling of weapons and funds linked to external direction. Settler Violence & Land Impact: Palestinians report settlers torching mosques and damaging cars and agricultural land in multiple West Bank villages, as raids and arrests continue. Syria Cross-Border Strikes: Israel shelled farmland in Quneitra and carried out incursions into western Daraa, including road-opening moves and leaflet warnings, amid UN calls to stop violations. Syria Infrastructure for Trade & Ag: Syria is pushing major highway rehabilitation to speed movement of goods and agricultural products between provinces and across borders, including key corridors toward Jordan, Turkey, Iraq and the Gulf. Oman Food Security Push: Al Wusta Governorate plans OMR857 million in investments to boost fisheries, livestock and agriculture, including aquaculture deals and expansion of onion and animal feed production. Climate Risk to Food: The AfDB warns a potential “super” El Niño could cut African GDP and hit food and water security, raising pressure on farmers and public finances. Agritech & Inputs: Satellite IoT provider Sateliot targets agriculture connectivity in the region, pitching low-cost narrowband services for farm sensors and logistics. Water & Nile Politics: A new analysis revisits hydro-hegemony dynamics around Ethiopia’s Blue Nile plans and Egypt’s downstream concerns.

Water Security & Irrigation Finance: Iraq has approved activating the Iraq–Türkiye Framework Agreement on Water, setting a financing mechanism for water infrastructure projects to start Sept. 1, 2026, as drought continues to hit southern provinces and farmland. Trade & Logistics for Fresh Produce: Direct London flights are set to boost horticulture exports by restoring faster cold-chain access for perishable goods, cutting transport time after years of disruption. Water Under Pressure in the Gulf: Iran’s recent attacks on Kuwait’s desalination plants underline how water supply is becoming a strategic target, with Kuwait relying on desalination for most of its potable water. Sustainable Livestock & Industry: Kuwait’s Soof Wool Mill won a 2026 MENA Innovative Energy Project Award for turning locally sourced Naeemi wool into a sustainable, research-backed processing venture. Agri-Conflict & Rural Impacts: West Bank violence continues to spill into rural life, with clashes near Susya and large-scale arrests after settler attacks, raising risks for farming communities and land access. Regional Connectivity for Agriculture: Iran’s ambassador to Azerbaijan says investors are eyeing agriculture and that a railway freight terminal is being pursued to improve transit and cooperation.

West Bank Security & Land: Israel carried out large-scale raids across the occupied West Bank, including in Tell near Nablus, detaining dozens and reporting deaths after settler violence; Jordan condemned “settler terrorism,” citing attacks on homes, agricultural land, and trees. Regional Conflict & Water/Agri Risk: US strikes on Iran expanded to bridges and infrastructure, with reports of damage to water pumping and desalination facilities—raising risks for nearby communities and food systems. Energy Shocks Hitting Food: With the Strait of Hormuz and wider Middle East conflict disrupting energy flows, analysts warn of higher costs that can feed into food inflation and farm input prices. Agroecology Voices: Kenya’s agroecology symposium urged farmers and pastoralists to be included in policy decisions, arguing the approach helps rebuild soils and reduce reliance on synthetic inputs. Trade Pressure on Farm-Adjacent Sectors: US tariff moves drew mixed reactions from industry groups, with concerns that forced-labour rules and tariff-rate quotas could shift sourcing and affect export competitiveness. Houthi Strike on Saudi Refinery: Houthis claimed a missile attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery; fire/thermal anomalies were reported, underscoring how conflict can disrupt regional fuel and logistics that agriculture depends on.

West Bank Security & Land Use: Israel says it will strengthen West Bank settlements and “regulate farms” as troops and checkpoints tighten after clashes that killed four Palestinians and two Israelis, with reports of settler raids and hospital raids in Nablus. Fuel & Fertilizer Cost Pressure: As US-Iran tensions keep oil near $100, diesel and petrol volatility is feeding into higher farm input costs; one report says farmers spent $1.4bn more on diesel in the 2026 planting season than in 2025. Grain Market Shock: Attacks on Black Sea shipping are pushing wheat to the highest in two years, raising food-inflation worries for buyers across Africa and the Middle East. Morocco Growth & Agriculture Rebound: The World Bank links Morocco’s fastest growth in a decade to infrastructure spending and an agricultural rebound, while stressing productivity gains depend on wider digital adoption. Iraq-Iran Corridor Talks: Iraq’s PM al-Zaidi heads to Tehran to deepen energy and strategic ties, positioning Baghdad as a corridor for diplomacy rather than a battlefield. Innovation for Ag & Industry: Israel and Nigeria renew research and tech cooperation through the I-FAIR fellowship, with funding secured for a new October 2026 cohort.