AGP Executive Report

Fuel Shock for Farms and Food Logistics: Record Labor Day diesel prices (about $5.90/gal nationally) tied to Iran-war disruptions and Strait of Hormuz volatility are squeezing trucking and farm budgets, with analysts warning higher transport and harvest costs will feed through to food prices. Middle East Food-Security Pressure: The IMF says the Middle East conflict will hit oil-importing developing countries hardest via higher energy bills and slower growth, raising inflation risks and worsening food insecurity. Iraq Farmland Under Threat: Baghdad officials face calls to stop demolitions and removals of homes on agricultural land, as disputes grow over unplanned housing expansion and the clearing of orchards. West Bank Tensions and Rural Impacts: Reports describe renewed settler violence and Israeli raids, including injuries and court moves affecting demolitions of residential and agricultural structures. Agribusiness Inputs and Markets: Cocoa prices keep climbing amid El Niño-linked harvest worries, while corn markets show an unusual pre-harvest rally as conflicts and energy costs keep input spending high. Policy and Water: Iraq’s local residents in Tafga warn winter is approaching with shortages in water, roads, and heating fuel, highlighting how basic services can quickly become agricultural constraints.

West Bank Violence & Food Security: Israeli forces and settlers escalated raids and attacks across the occupied West Bank, including a settler stabbing and a village raid that killed a Palestinian, while reports also flagged settler sabotage of farming areas and fencing off land in the Jordan Valley—direct hits to cultivation and livelihoods. Gaza & West Bank Raids: Additional arrests and raids continued across Gaza and the West Bank, including attacks on farming-related sites and assaults on Palestinians near Nablus. Fuel Shock for Farmers: Diesel prices in the US hit a fresh record around $5.90 a gallon as Iran-war disruptions damage Gulf refinery output, raising costs for agriculture and transport. Egypt Sugar Exports Resume: Egypt lifted restrictions and resumed sugar exports through end-2026 after domestic producers faced surplus pressure and competition from cheaper imports. Water & Irrigation Resilience: A microalgae bloom disrupted most Israeli desalination plants, but reservoir-based storage helped protect irrigation in peripheral regions. Fisheries Governance: FAO opened COFI37 and marked the 10th anniversary of the Port State Measures Agreement to curb illegal fishing. Türkiye Industrial Push: Türkiye’s 2027-2029 Medium-Term Program adds incentives and credit tools aimed at boosting domestic production and export-ready high-value sectors.

Israel-Lebanon Strikes: Israeli attacks hit Nabatiyeh in southern Lebanon, killing at least four and injuring 20, with reports of damage to a historic building and nearby agriculture and finance offices. West Bank Settlement Pressure: Netanyahu ordered evacuation of some West Bank outposts deemed illegal under Israeli law, with officials citing U.S. pressure—an issue that directly affects land and farming communities. Israel Water Risk for Agriculture: Israel’s desalination system remains strained after marine contamination fears shut multiple plants, with agriculture still receiving water via partial output from operating facilities. Iraq Dates Boom: Iraq’s Diyala province expects about 150,000 tonnes of dates in 2026, up from last year, as cultivation expands with new Barhi and Medjool orchards and more than 60,000 palm offshoots planted. Food Supply Watch: Global food prices surged to the highest since 2022 as war and weather threaten supplies, keeping pressure on Middle East import bills and farm inputs. Farm Inputs & Costs: Reports highlight farmers’ strain from higher feed and energy costs, including grain-market competition from cheaper palm kernel feed.

Iraq–Jordan Trade: Amman Chamber says exports certified to Iraq hit $585M in the first eight months of 2026, with 1,912 origin certificates issued and total certified exports up 20.7% year-on-year. Agri-Fish Stocking: Iraq’s Nineveh Agriculture Directorate released 400,000 common carp fingerlings into the Tigris to boost fish stocks, support fishing livelihoods, and stabilize local food supply. West Bank Livelihood Pressure: PNN highlights how Palestinian farmers and women face expanding settler pressure, including alleged livestock targeting and attacks that threaten rural production and heritage markets. Lebanon Ceasefire Strain: Lebanon reports 4 killed and 20 injured in Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, with damage to civilian infrastructure including an out-of-service hospital—raising risks for food and farming continuity. Energy Costs for Farmers: Reports on record diesel prices tied to Iran-war disruptions point to mounting pressure on farm operating costs and transport. Solar Cooking for Forest Protection: A Spain-backed project in Burundi is rolling out solar cookers to cut reliance on firewood/charcoal and reduce deforestation. Iraq Wheat & Dates: Iraq’s agriculture ministry reiterates self-sufficiency in wheat and dates for 2026, signaling progress in staples security.

Iraq Food Security: Iraq’s Agriculture Ministry says the country hit self-sufficiency in wheat and dates in the 2026 season, helped by new salinity- and stress-tolerant wheat seeds and subsidized irrigation sprinklers via long installment plans. West Bank Water & Land Pressures: Israeli forces raided multiple West Bank villages and settlers grazed sheep on Palestinian farmland in the Jordan Valley, damaging crops and olive trees while stealing water barrels—raising fresh alarms for livestock and irrigation-dependent farming. Israel–Lebanon Farm Safety: Reports from southern Lebanon and Quneitra describe ongoing strikes and incursions that obstruct workers in agricultural areas and disrupt local land use. Middle East Trade & Inputs: EU GSP+ talks put Pakistan at a “very critical” implementation-focused juncture, with preferences tied to measurable progress on labor, human rights, environment and governance—directly affecting export agriculture planning. Regional Climate Risk: Somalia’s drought-hit pastoralists and farmers are again moving toward cities as yields collapse and El Niño-linked extreme weather threatens renewed hardship. Energy Costs for Agriculture: Rising fuel prices tied to Iran-related supply disruptions are squeezing farm logistics and costs, with diesel at record levels in the US and political pressure mounting over longer-term impacts.

Global Food Prices: The UN FAO Food Price Index rose 1.9% in August to its highest level since late 2022, with sugar up 11.9% and wheat up 2.6%, as El Niño, higher fertilizer and diesel costs, and war-linked trade disruptions keep supply risks elevated. Fuel Shock for Farms: Diesel hit a new US record average of $5.85 a gallon, a direct hit to freight and farm machinery costs across the region’s import-dependent supply chains. Middle East Water & Desalination: Israel’s desalination system remains under pressure after algae and turbidity issues shut down most plants, raising fears for irrigation and vegetable production; the wider desalination debate is also resurfacing as water scarcity tightens. Jordan Trade Signals: Amman Chamber certificates of origin for exports climbed 20.7% to JD1.031bn in the first eight months, including JD153m in agricultural products, with Iraq the top destination by value. Iraq Agri Self-Sufficiency: Iraq’s agriculture ministry says the country achieved self-sufficiency in wheat and dates for 2026. Oman Diplomacy: Oman and Rwanda reaffirmed ties ahead of President Kagame’s visit, with potential knock-on interest for investment and ag-linked cooperation. UK Farm Cyber Risk: A UK report warns Chinese-made connected farm tech could expose food security, including risks of data tampering or remote disruption. South Africa Animal Health: South Africa’s foot-and-mouth vaccine supply chain faces scrutiny after the agriculture minister suspended the acting CEO of Onderstepoort Biological Products over alleged vaccine pricing misconduct. Agribusiness Markets: ADIHEX 2026 in Abu Dhabi is in its final weekend with record-setting falcon and horse auctions, reflecting continued high-value livestock and breeding trade momentum. Banana Export Push: Philippine Saba bananas are set for new international markets after supply deals signed for shipments including Saudi-bound Cardava bananas.

Water & Food Security: Israel says its water sector is “fully stable” after a 24-hour assessment, with desalination plants partially operating and supplies to residents and agriculture continuing “as usual,” though fishing remains banned in treatment areas. Livestock Health: Turkey’s eastern goat herds have had Orf virus strains genetically characterized, showing mostly similar isolates across provinces but one distinct lineage in Tunceli. Agri Policy & Self-Sufficiency: Iraq announced wheat and date self-sufficiency for 2026, citing new stress-tolerant seed varieties and subsidized irrigation sprinklers. Global Input Costs: Diesel hit a US record $5.85/gallon amid the Iran conflict, raising transport costs that can quickly feed into food prices. Humanitarian Risk to Farmers: UN warns explosive remnants of war in Syria keep killing and injuring civilians, with over two-thirds of incidents occurring on agricultural and grazing land. Climate & Crops: Research highlights jackfruit cold-stress gene regulation, while El Niño risks are pushing coffee growers toward better water management. Regional Trade/Infrastructure: Syria’s explosive ordnance threat and Israel’s water disruptions both underline how conflict shocks hit farming and logistics fast.

Market Access: Egypt has successfully negotiated a veterinary health certificate deal with South Africa, clearing the way for South African beef and livestock exports once final signatures are appended, a key boost after major foot-and-mouth disruption. Food Prices: The UN/FAO says world food prices hit a four-year high in August as wars and extreme weather tighten supplies; cereals, oils, sugar, meat and dairy all rose, with Black Sea shipping disruption and Hormuz-linked fertiliser strains cited. Israel Water & Agriculture: Israel’s desalination plants were hit by a massive algae bloom; researchers identify a cyanobacterium (Synechococcus) and debate whether Gaza sewage contributed, while authorities say water supply to households and agriculture is now stable via controlled operations and other sources. Energy Costs for Farming: Diesel in the US hit a record $5.85/gal as Iran-linked supply risks and refinery disruptions squeeze global fuel, raising costs for agriculture and transport. Agri-Trade & Industry: Turkish firms signed an agreement to set up a 150-hectare industrial zone in Raqqa under “Raqqa Vision 2030,” including an agricultural zone alongside industry and tourism. Climate Finance: Türkiye urged faster, affordable climate finance and private capital to build climate-resilient energy infrastructure ahead of COP31.

Energy & Farm Costs: U.S. diesel hit a record $5.820/gal as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and Ukrainian refinery disruptions tighten global supply, with knock-on pressure on trucking, agriculture and food prices. Water & Food Security in the Levant: Israel’s desalination crisis and ongoing strikes have left agriculture facing water disruptions and restrictions, while fighting continues across southern Lebanon. Agri-Tech for Precision: ZenaTech says its autonomous IQ Octo drone prototype is ready for field testing in Arizona, targeting precision spraying and seeding to cut input costs. Middle East Trade & Ports: China-Egypt port ties deepen as Guangzhou Port adds liner routes to Alexandria and Port Said, boosting container volumes sharply year-on-year. Regional Energy Dependence: A report warns Central Asia’s fuel vulnerability to Russian refining disruptions, highlighting shortages and price spikes in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Plant Health in Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia launches a Weqaa campaign to raise awareness of integrated plant pest management. Iraq Seeds & Capacity: Iraq expands seed processing capacity in Nineveh to strengthen local supply.

China–Egypt Trade Push: Xi Jinping’s Cairo visit highlights a decade of deepening China–Egypt ties, with the Suez Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone growing into an industrial cluster of nearly 200 firms, about 10,000 jobs, and $4.7bn in cumulative investment, now expanding into solar and circular-economy projects. Water & Desalination Stress: Israel’s desalination system faces an algae crisis, with some plants partially operating or shut down; authorities say household and agricultural supplies are still moving, while efforts focus on managing contamination and preventing spread to other facilities. Regional Climate Risk: The UN weather agency warns El Niño could intensify into 2027 and become the strongest on record, raising the odds of extreme drought and rainfall swings that can hit farm output and water security across the region. Agri-Tech for Inputs: ZenaTech says its autonomous IQ Octo drone prototype is ready for field testing in Arizona, aiming to improve precision spraying and seeding to cut fertilizer and crop-protection costs. Poultry Trade Signals: Brazil’s chicken exports rose 29.9% in July, with China returning as a key destination—an indicator of shifting protein supply flows into Middle East markets. Policy & Markets: India’s weak monsoon is expected to weigh on 2026-27 grain planting and yields, with rice and corn forecasts adjusted downward, adding pressure to regional food price expectations.

Farm Support & Compliance (NI): DAERA says nearly £240m in Farm Sustainability Payments has been issued to Northern Ireland farmers, with new conditions tied to the Soil Nutrient Health Scheme (by May 2027) and Bovine Genetics Project (by May 2028), while carbon audits are being pushed as a possible added conditionality. CAP Integrity (EU): Fianna Fáil MEP Barry Cowen argues the next CAP needs stronger safeguards to stop fraud like “fake cows” and improper beneficiaries, calling for better controls (including capping very large payments) rather than cutting farming budgets. Fuel & Fertiliser Relief (Portugal/EU): The European Commission approved a €30m Portuguese state aid scheme to help agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture firms absorb higher fuel and fertiliser costs linked to the Middle East crisis. Water for Irrigation (Iraq/Turkey): Iraq says it will export 30,000 barrels of oil to Turkey to fund water-related projects aimed at improving irrigation and supporting farmers in southern provinces. Agri Corruption Probe (Kuwait): Kuwait’s prosecution referred 71 defendants over alleged manipulation of agricultural holdings and plots, including bribery, document forgery and money laundering tied to usufruct rights. On-the-ground Impact (West Bank): Israeli forces reportedly demolished four water wells and greenhouses near Hebron, threatening irrigation for local crops. Pistachio Market Watch (Iran): Iran’s pistachio sector faces a sharp production drop forecast for 2026 amid drought, irrigation disruptions and off-year effects, even as global demand and prices remain supported. Climate Pressure on Food Systems: A UN report warns the world will likely overshoot the 1.5°C warming target by 2030, raising risks for drought and food security across vulnerable regions.

Food Prices & Supply Risk: The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index jumped about 13.5% in August, its biggest monthly gain since 2012, as Black Sea shipping disruptions, El Niño, and higher fertilizer/diesel costs raise food-crisis fears across the Middle East and North Africa. Water & Desalination Stress: Israel’s desalination systems remain under strain, with water disruptions tied to plant shutdowns and turbidity issues—an agriculture hit as farmers face reduced irrigation reliability. Israel–West Bank Tensions: Overnight raids saw 12 Palestinians detained in the occupied West Bank, while settlers reportedly set fire to vehicles—raising pressure on rural livelihoods and farm access. Qatar Policy: Qatar’s cabinet renewed condemnation of Iran’s attacks on Gulf neighbors and approved a draft cloud computing law, signaling continued focus on security and digital governance. UAE Trade: The UAE received 60 tons of Armenian fish products, including large trout, highlighting ongoing regional food import flows. Arable Tech & Data: The USDA is piloting satellite-and-AI crop data upgrades after farmer criticism—relevant to how the region may modernize farm reporting and planning. Climate Shock in the Horn: A strong El Niño is developing over East Africa, worsening drought/flood risk in a conflict-heavy region where food and humanitarian systems have little room to absorb shocks.

Water Security & Regional Risk: Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif warned at the SCO summit that water must never be “weaponised,” stressing the Indus system’s role in Pakistan’s agriculture and food security. Israel–Lebanon Escalation: Israeli airstrikes hit multiple sites across southern Lebanon’s Tyre district as Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri warned the campaign aims to inflame internal strife and threaten Lebanon’s civil peace. Iraq Food Security: Iraq’s Cabinet banned agricultural imports until the end of the domestic production season and approved a draft law to create a Food and Drug Authority, alongside steps on water and sewage projects in Baghdad. Israel Water Crisis: Reports say most Israeli desalination plants shut down again due to turbid seawater and Nile Delta algae, with water restrictions continuing and raising risks for vegetable crops. Livestock Health: Pakistan’s National Assembly was briefed that foot-and-mouth disease control is essential for meat exports, with a national FMD control plan underway and consultations with provinces. Agri Trade & Exports: UP launched a horticulture export promotion website to help farmers and FPOs meet overseas standards and access subsidies; Ethiopia and China’s Yunnan also pushed deeper coffee trade and value-add cooperation. Input Costs & Production Pressure: Farmers across the region face rising fertiliser, seed and pesticide costs tied to transport and supply disruptions, while seasonal delays and heat/humidity complicate planning.

Agri-Fuel Subsidies: Maldives’ fisheries ministry is moving oil subsidy applications and issuance to the Fahi Hakatha portal, requiring fishermen to register by Sept 15; subsidised diesel volumes are set by vessel size and fuel on credit is available via MIFCO/FSM. West Bank Farm Damage: Palestinian farmers in Burin say Israeli settler attacks have destroyed greenhouses and crops, but cooperatives are rebuilding to keep land and livelihoods alive. Water Stress for Farming: Israel’s desalination shutdowns and ongoing water restrictions are again hitting Negev crops, with reports of turbidity and algae linked to plant closures. Food Security & Trade: A USDA report says Ukraine’s poultry exports to Africa remain below pre-war levels, with new access limits and the EU/UK barriers reshaping flows; Türkiye’s new zero-duty quota under the Ukraine-Türkiye free trade deal is noted. Harvest Losses: Iraq’s Duhok province reports 10 grain-crop fires during the 2026 harvest, with losses estimated at 141.7m dinars. Agroecology Research: Puerto Rico’s agroecological research community launches a Science for (and with) the People Fund to back young researchers and biodiversity-friendly farming knowledge. Livestock Health: UK bluetongue cases are rising, and farmers are urged to vaccinate amid spread concerns.

Biofuel Policy Shock (U.S.): The EPA granted expanded small-refinery biofuel blending exemptions for 2025, totaling 1.76 billion renewable fuel credits, and plans to shift the difference into 2026–27—raising fresh uncertainty for Middle East-linked farm and biofuel supply chains. Food Security Under Strain (Cuba): A BBC review says Cuba’s food crisis is deepening despite arable land, with pork, rice, beans and milk production collapsing since 2018 and imports covering about four-fifths of food needs. Water & Irrigation Disruption (Israel): A Nile Delta algae bloom clogged Israel’s desalination filtration, shutting five of six plants before partial restarts—an immediate hit to water reliability for farming. Agriculture Trade Push (Pakistan–Saudi): Pakistan’s value-added fruit sector is urging faster market access to Saudi Arabia as the “Makkah Pact” supports a push toward $3bn agri-food exports in two years. Power & Farm Inputs (Pakistan): Pakistan’s government apologized for night load shedding, blaming lack of contracted LNG and citing higher spot prices tied to the Iran–U.S. conflict and Hormuz closures. Conflict Impacts on Farms (Southern Lebanon): Reports say ceasefire violations included shelling and burning affecting farms and rural areas in multiple towns. Settlement Risk to Land (West Bank): Israel established a new settler outpost near Jenin, with Palestinians warning it threatens agricultural land and access to grazing.

Iraq Potato Import Gap: Iraq imported nearly 90,000 tons of potatoes worth about $52.4m in 2025, highlighting a domestic production shortfall and the need for better storage, marketing, and productivity to compete with regional suppliers (notably Iran, Egypt, and Türkiye). Gaza Farm-Linked Violence: Israeli fire killed two Palestinians and injured 11 in Gaza, with additional injuries reported for fishermen; separate reports also cite West Bank demolitions. Coffee Price Jump: The ICO says global coffee prices rose in July, with the composite indicator up 15.4% month-on-month as Brazil weather concerns, a strengthening El Niño outlook, and tighter Arabica supplies pushed prices higher. Grain Market Volatility: Corn, soybeans, and wheat fell in early trading as Black Sea shipping worries and Turkey’s push for a grain deal stirred fast-moving futures. Korean Beef Returns to Hong Kong: Revised quarantine rules let Korean beef exports resume from specific cities/counties after foot-and-mouth outbreaks, easing province-wide restrictions. Climate Stress Signal: A major Nepal flood is framed as a warning sign of worsening heat-driven disasters that can disrupt agriculture and water systems. Saudi Quantum for Food Security Tech: KACST and Pasqal launched a quantum research collaboration in Saudi Arabia, starting with quantum-safe cryptography—aimed at strengthening national tech readiness.