AGP Executive Report

Fertilizer Supply Shock: The US suspended selected anti-dumping and countervailing duties on phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco for eight months, citing a food-supply emergency and warning domestic production can’t meet demand—highlighting how Middle East-linked disruptions keep input prices and availability in the spotlight. Climate Risk for Farmers: WFP-backed climate insurance is helping farmers in Senegal and Syria recover after extreme weather hits, showing how risk financing is becoming a practical tool for protecting harvests and livelihoods. Heat Threat to Yields: UK experts warn that extreme heat is already disrupting crop growth, accelerating soil degradation, and threatening long-term food security—raising urgency for heat-resilient farming and water management. Banana Breeding Push: Tropic acquired Rahan Meristem to scale gene-edited banana varieties aimed at resisting Panama disease and reducing post-harvest waste, with operations spanning the Middle East and other major banana regions. Rural Women in Syria: KSrelief and UNDP launched a rural women’s economic empowerment program in Syria, funding food-processing units, composting, marketing support, and renewable energy to boost farm-linked incomes. Water Security Tensions: Pakistan’s information minister reiterated that Indus River water is a “lifeline,” warning against any diversion—keeping transboundary water politics central to regional agriculture planning.

Gulf Water Security: Saudi Arabia’s GCC electricity and water ministers discussed a regional water interconnection network to share desalinated surplus and keep supplies stable during crises and climate shocks. Iraq–Syria Food Security Push: Iraq and Syria agreed to form joint committees covering energy, agriculture, water, transport and border ports, plus a high-level coordination body, with plans including rehabilitation of the Iraq–Syria oil pipeline. India–Saudi Water Cooperation: India and Saudi Arabia signed a water resources MoU at Saudi Water Week to expand collaboration on irrigation systems, water planning and sustainable management. Egypt–Arab Water Projects: Egypt’s water minister called for jointly financed Arab water and climate projects, pushing bankable regional initiatives and reuse and digital tools. Pakistan Monsoon Watch: Pakistan’s meteorology department warned of a fresh monsoon spell from early July, with rain and possible heavy falls across parts of Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Islamabad/Rawalpindi—key for farm planning. Local Infrastructure Support: Yemen’s al-Mahweet governorate began distributing cement and diesel to back community road initiatives via cooperatives and local partners. Food Cost Pressure: A new FAO-based analysis flags sharp food price inflation in parts of the region, with healthy diets becoming increasingly unaffordable.

West Bank campus disruption: Israeli forces raided Birzeit University near Ramallah, assaulting a security guard and damaging facilities, while the university said exams would proceed unchanged. Gaza/West Bank pressure on food systems: UN-linked reporting says Israeli restrictions continue to hamper Gaza’s agricultural recovery, while West Bank economic conditions are being pushed toward collapse—raising risks for future farming and livelihoods. Bahrain dates resilience: Bahrain’s date output held around 14,000 tonnes for three years, still about 24% of farm output in 2024, despite farmland and water strain; growers want better sorting, packing and market access. Pakistan monsoon outlook: The PMD expects monsoon rains to start in the first week of July, with scattered heavy falls in multiple northern and central districts—good for water, but a flood risk for farms. Trade finance for agri-SMEs: UAE agri-trade tech Maalexi teamed with India’s RXIL Global to improve access to trade finance for cross-border agricultural transactions. Input-cost and fertilizer signals: Markets watched Strait of Hormuz shipping and fertilizer flows as oil and grain futures moved, with traders also awaiting USDA acreage and stocks data. Iraq governance: Iraq’s PM vowed no immunity for corrupt officials as arrests followed corruption probes—relevant for public spending that can affect agriculture services.

Desert Water Tech Check: A UAE study found closed-loop hydroponics isn’t automatically more profitable than other systems; results depend on what farmers grow, with conversion costs and risk shaping payoffs. Water Security Push (Egypt): Egypt’s water minister called for global financing and “non-conventional” water partnerships ahead of the 2027 Riyadh World Water Forum, highlighting Water 2.0 upgrades like desalination, digital monitoring, and basin management. Coffee Revitalization (Angola): Angola says it produces 10,500 tons of coffee yearly and is expanding Arabica via nurseries and seedlings; Cuanza-Norte targets an 800-ton harvest, up 90 tons. Farm Inputs Squeeze: Farmers market vendors and growers report rising fuel, seed, and fertilizer costs, plus weather swings, forcing price changes and testing margins. Food Security Under Strain (World Bank): The World Bank warns the bigger crisis is access, not production—prices are rising due to conflict, energy and fertilizer costs, and weaker incomes. West Bank Farm Damage: Israeli forces bulldozed olive groves in the occupied West Bank, adding to repeated agricultural sabotage and land pressure. Iran Deal Jitters for Food Prices: Even with a US-Iran peace deal, analysts warn fragile tensions could lift oil prices and worsen inflation—raising risks for agricultural production and food affordability.

Pakistan-Iran Trade Reset: Pakistan Business Forum welcomed de-escalation and urged turning diplomacy into faster trade, investment and energy links, noting bilateral trade is about $2bn yearly but could reach $5bn soon and $10bn long term via border, banking and private-sector reforms. Türkiye-China Cherries: Türkiye is preparing to resume cherry exports to China after customs and plant-health talks, with technical inspections already completed; Türkiye ships cherries to 60+ markets and earned about $210m from 67,000 tons in 2024. Egypt-China Tariff-Free Access: China granted Egypt duty-free access under a zero-tariff policy for African partners, but the piece highlights Egypt’s large trade deficit with China and the challenge of balancing imports and exports. Egypt Food Export Surge: Egypt shipped about 180,000 tons of food in one week across 4,150 shipments, led by citrus, grapes and strawberries, plus strong vegetable exports like onions. Gaza Farm Hit: Israeli strikes targeted agricultural land near Deir al-Balah, with reports of damage and civilian panic. Lebanon-Israel Framework Fallout: Lebanon’s president hailed a US-mediated framework as a path to sovereignty, while Hezbollah rejected it and vowed resistance, keeping uncertainty high for rural communities. South Africa Wheat Tariff Rule: South Africa’s ITAC defended keeping the wheat tariff trigger unchanged to protect farmers from subsidized imports, despite Grain SA objections. Heat Stress Across the Region: Reports describe extreme heat pushing toward or above 50°C in parts of Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, raising new pressure on crops and farm labor.

Lebanon–Israel Framework: Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun called the US-brokered Lebanon–Israel framework a path back to full sovereignty and return for displaced families, but Hezbollah rejected it, vowing to resist and insisting any deal must follow Israeli withdrawal. Gaza Farm Hit: Israeli air raids struck agricultural lands near Deir al-Balah, with reports of damage and panic as drones and missiles targeted farmland. Lebanon Buffer Zone Details: Netanyahu unveiled a “yellow line” buffer zone south of the Litani River, tying any Israeli pullback to Hezbollah disarmament—raising uncertainty for rural areas and farming communities. Iraq Rice Demand: Thai 5% white rice rose to $483/mt FOB as Iraq bought ahead of late-July arrivals, with production risks tied to rainfall and USDA expectations. Iraq Water Governance: Iraq’s water ministry agreed to restore normal operations at the Al-Yaou regulator within 48 hours after a dispute threatened water shortages and damage to agriculture. Bangladesh Fertiliser Lifeline: The World Bank approved $1.1B emergency financing to secure fertiliser imports for rice seasons and support vulnerable households amid Middle East-linked price shocks. Bulgaria Farm Cost Support: Bulgaria earmarked EUR 170M to compensate farmers for higher fertiliser and fuel costs, alongside moves to strengthen producer cooperatives. Trade & Agriculture Cooperation: Armenia–Iran talks highlighted border infrastructure and cooperation steps including agriculture, while Pakistan’s business forum urged scaling Iran trade to unlock growth.

World Bank Emergency Aid: The World Bank approved $1.1 billion for Bangladesh to protect food security and livelihoods amid Middle East-linked shocks, including $300m to finance fertilizer imports for the Aman and Boro rice seasons and $713m for rapid emergency spending like cash transfers and fuel/energy for essential services. Gaza Farm Recovery Blocked: FAO says Israeli restrictions are still severely limiting Gaza’s agricultural recovery, with most greenhouses and farmland damaged and farmers urgently needing seeds, fertilizers, equipment, and safer access. Lebanon Security vs. Farm Labor: Israeli forces carried out a sweep in southern Lebanon after abducting seven residents, including four Syrian agricultural workers, raising fresh risks for rural livelihoods during ongoing ceasefire tensions. Iran Import Claims: Iran’s central bank rejects U.S. claims of shortages, saying $3.7 billion has been allocated for imports of essential goods and medicines via official channels. Turkey Solar vs. Pasture Farming: A Turkish administrative court inspected a planned solar project on communal grazing land in Bitlis, where residents fear damage to livestock farming and livelihoods. Invasive Water Hyacinth in Iraq: Iraq’s Al-Anbar waterways are facing rapid water hyacinth growth that threatens water flow, biodiversity, fish stocks, and intake infrastructure. Export Boost for Fruit: India’s APEDA facilitated the first GI-tagged Rewa Sundarja mango export to the UAE, aiming to lift farmer incomes through export-grade production and packing.

Hormuz Shipping Shock: A cargo ship was hit on the UN-backed “safe route” through the Strait of Hormuz as tanker traffic tried to resume, underlining how fragile enforcement is for the Middle East’s energy lifeline that also feeds regional farm input costs. Israel–Lebanon Peace Framework: Israel and Lebanon signed a US-mediated framework agreement in Washington, with few details, as fighting tied to Hezbollah continues and farmers in border areas face repeated disruption. Farmers Caught in the Crossfire: Reports say Israeli forces abducted six farmers from Ain Arab in southern Lebanon while operations and ceasefire violations persist. US-Iran Crop Trade Push: Trump renewed claims that Iran could buy US wheat, soybeans and corn using unfrozen assets, but traders and Iran’s side remain skeptical—leaving uncertainty over whether any real demand will materialize for Middle East-linked grain flows. Market Watch—US Corn/Soybeans: USDA’s June acreage and stocks reports are set to move corn/soy markets, with war-driven fertilizer costs and weather still shaping planting expectations. Armenian Fish Export Pressure: Russia’s watchdog blacklisted some Armenian fish farms, forcing exporters to scramble for EU and UAE buyers—another reminder that food trade in the region is tightly tied to compliance risk. UAE Mango Festival: Khorfakkan’s mango festival is expanding from a local showcase into a business hub with workshops on irrigation, cultivation and pest management.

US-Iran Farm Deal & Frozen Assets: Trump told American farmers the U.S. will use unfrozen Iranian funds to buy wheat, soybeans and corn from U.S. producers, while Iran rejects the idea that Washington dictates terms and says purchases depend on price and quality. Shipping Risk in the Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s strike on a Singapore-flagged vessel near Oman and Tehran’s insistence on designated routes led the UN IMO to pause its Hormuz escort mission, adding uncertainty for trade flows that underpin food supply chains. Fuel, Fertilizer and Cost Pressure: Oil slid as investors weighed supply outlook against Middle East tensions, but the broader shock remains: fuel-price moves are feeding into producer costs and raising the stakes for farmers’ margins. Palestinian Farmland Under Attack: Settlers set fire to agricultural land near Turmus Ayya, with arson spreading across farmland amid raids in the occupied West Bank. Syria’s Quneitra Farming Land Affected: Israeli forces reportedly advanced and set up new fortifications on agricultural land west of al-Rafid, with farmers and shepherds detained briefly. Egypt Renewable Energy for Industry: Egypt signed an MoU to build its first wind turbine manufacturing plant and a 2GW Gulf of Suez wind project, aiming to localize clean-energy equipment that can support broader rural and agri-infrastructure needs. Armenia-US Ag Exports via Turkey: Armenia discussed phytosanitary certificates, traceability and lab capacity with USDA counterparts to deepen agricultural and flower exports to the U.S. and expand transit through Turkey. EU Avian Influenza Watch: EU reports show very high viral circulation in wild birds alongside poultry outbreaks, with monitoring urged after new H9N2 clade detections. Bahrain SDG Progress: Bahrain reported SDG momentum toward 2030 despite missile and drone attacks, including plans under Vision 2050.

Iran–US Truce Under Pressure: The UN’s IMO paused its Strait of Hormuz evacuation escort after a cargo ship reported an attack near Oman, as Iran warned vessels outside approved routes won’t be safe. Frozen Assets Row: Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and the central bank pushed back on US claims that unfrozen Iranian assets must be used to buy American farm goods, saying there’s no such obligation and that purchases depend on price and quality. Farm Aid in US Supplemental Request: The White House asked Congress for $87.6bn emergency funding tied to the Iran war, including about $11bn for US farmers and a push for year-round E15 gasoline sales. Water Stress in Syria/Iraq: Floods and renewed Euphrates flows have reignited debate over Türkiye’s dam-driven leverage over shared Tigris-Euphrates water. Agricultural Trade Disruption: Armenia’s flower exports face new Russian restrictions, threatening growers as shipments fail inspections and domestic buyers refuse returns. Regional Ag Output Signals: Egypt’s processed food exports rose 7.1% in Jan–Apr, while Iran’s asset and shipping disputes continue to cloud broader food-price risks.

US-Iran Funding Push: The White House asked Congress for $87.6bn in supplemental spending, with about $67bn for the Pentagon to cover Iran-war costs, plus $11bn in support for US farmers and $1.4bn for Ebola response. Strait of Hormuz Tolls Row: Trump said Iran assured Washington there will be no tolls, insurance fees or other charges for ships, warning talks would end if reports are “false,” while Iran and the US continue trading claims over nuclear inspections and asset-use terms. Frozen Assets Dispute: A proposed escrow mechanism would let released Iranian funds be used for US food and medical purchases, but Iran rejects the “farm windfall” framing, saying any imports depend on price and quality. Biosecurity Alert (Bird Flu): Washington state veterinarians urged poultry owners to tighten biosecurity as avian influenza detections rise, including warnings not to touch sick or dead wild birds. Egypt Food Exports: Egypt’s processed food exports rose 7.1% to about $2.43bn in Jan–Apr 2026, led by frozen strawberries and cola concentrates. Armenian Ag Market Diversification: Armenia is seeking new export destinations for fruits, vegetables, berries and flowers, including EU, Arab states (notably Iraq) and Arab Gulf markets, despite logistics hurdles. Weather Watch (Egypt): Egypt’s forecast calls for hot, humid conditions with Cairo around 35°C, plus mist/fog affecting roads.

US-Iran Farm Aid & War Funding: The White House has sent Congress an $87.6B emergency supplemental request, mainly to replenish Pentagon costs from the Iran war, while also adding support for American farmers and an Ebola response. Hormuz Shipping Dispute: Trump says Iran told the US there are “no tolls” or other charges on Strait of Hormuz transits, warning talks would end if that’s false—while markets react to shifting risk and shipping traffic. Frozen Assets for Food: Trump reiterates that unfrozen Iranian assets will be used to buy US corn, wheat and soybeans, but Iran’s UN envoy says Iran controls how the money is spent. Iraq Water Governance: In Balad, Iraq, communities are building climate resilience through shared water governance as shrinking supplies and shifting river patterns strain farms and land access. Agri Cooperation Moves: Cambodia and Israel discussed expanding agricultural research, trade and student training; Turkey and Mauritania also flagged agriculture and fisheries cooperation. Egypt Energy for Water/Ag: Egypt signed an MoU for its first wind turbine manufacturing plant and a 2GW Gulf of Suez wind project, alongside separate moves toward renewable-energy-powered water reuse and drainage treatment.

Occupied West Bank Farming: Wheat fields in the West Bank are becoming a battleground as farmers race to save land and crops amid attacks and access restrictions. EU Farm Support: The European Commission approved France’s EUR 212m fuel-price aid for agriculture and aquaculture after Strait of Hormuz disruptions pushed diesel costs sharply higher. Iran Economy & Agriculture: Iran’s economy contracted 0.7% year to March, with agriculture value added down 4.2%, citing lower wheat, barley, pistachios and dates output amid drought. US-Iran Deal & Food Imports: Trump says any released frozen funds would be used to buy US corn, soybeans and wheat, while Iran disputes parts of the agreement and nuclear-inspection timelines. Fertilizer Supply for Food Security: Indonesia delivered 47,250 tonnes of urea to Australia, underscoring Indo-Pacific fertilizer cooperation as Middle East tensions keep supply chains jittery. Morocco Cereal Pressure: Morocco’s cereal recovery is underway, but FAO data still shows heavy import needs, keeping import pressure on agriculture. Trade & Market Access: Cyprus’ trade office joined EU–Qatar talks on safe, resilient food trade, aiming for more predictable access to Gulf markets. Regional Infrastructure: Liberia signed a US$30m BADEA loan to upgrade the Salayea–Konia road corridor, targeting lower transport costs and better rural access.

US-Iran Farm Funding Dispute: Trump says unfrozen Iranian assets will be put in a US-controlled escrow to buy US corn, wheat and soybeans, but Iran denies it and says it decides how funds are used, while UN shipping officials plan to evacuate thousands of seafarers through the Strait of Hormuz. Nuclear Inspections Clash: Washington and Tehran trade conflicting claims over IAEA access, with Trump insisting Iran agreed “into infinity” and Iran pushing back, keeping negotiations politically volatile. Iraq Rice Recovery: After drought eased, Iraq’s Najaf farmers expanded rice planting again, but water experts warn gains may not last through the next dry season. Pakistan-Iran Ag Trade: Pakistan and Iran agreed to deepen cooperation in agriculture, livestock, food security and research, including Iran’s interest in importing Pakistani rice, mangoes and meat. West Bank Olive Attacks: The Archbishop of Canterbury planted an olive tree on a Palestinian Christian farm near Bethlehem, amid reports of settler violence targeting olive groves and farmers. Input Costs Pressure: USDA forecasts record-high 2027 production costs for major crops, while some farmers report diesel relief but remain worried about fertilizer prices. Sustainable Palm Oil Warning: RSPO Africa urged East Africa’s palm expansion to prioritize zero-deforestation and human rights over short-term profit.

US-Iran Agri Link: The US Treasury issued a 60-day sanctions easing on Iranian oil (to Aug 21) after Switzerland talks, while Trump said any unfreezing would be tied to purchases of American food—an attempt to steer relief toward US farmers even as Iran disputes details. Fertiliser & Input Stress: With Strait of Hormuz risk still in the background, fertilizer costs and availability remain a live issue for farmers; in South Carolina, many fields face missed timing and affordability gaps as supply routes stay fragile. Hormuz Shipping & Food Trade: Diplomats agreed on a roadmap to a final deal within 60 days, including a mechanism for safe passage for commercial shipping—key for Gulf-linked agri supply chains and fertiliser flows. Local Export Pressure: Kenya’s High Court temporarily blocked Nakuru County’s Sh400/tonne cess on flower exporters and ordered release of impounded consignments, after farmers reported losses from truck seizures. Agri Climate Resilience: Central Asian countries will meet in Bishkek (June 24-26) to coordinate flood and mudflow risk reduction, with FAO and UNDP among partners. Food Security Watch: UN warnings highlight worsening hunger risks across hotspots in the region, with conflict and instability continuing to strain food systems.

Iran-US Farm Link: US VP JD Vance says any unfreezing of Iranian assets would be used to buy American food and “make American farmers richer,” alongside progress on nuclear inspections and ceasefire steps after Switzerland talks. Sanctions Shift: The US temporarily suspended Iran oil sanctions and issued a 60-day license to allow oil and related transactions through Aug. 21, citing commitments on open transit. Input Cost Pressure: The EU approved €212m French state aid for agri and aquaculture firms hit by Middle East-driven diesel price spikes (GNR up 74% Feb–May), paying €0.15/litre for fuel bought May–Aug. Fertiliser Crunch: FAO warns global fertiliser trade fell 30% in early 2026 as the Hormuz disruption tightens nitrogen supply, raising costs for farmers across the region. Food Trade Partnerships: Kuwait and Egypt pushed closer food-industry cooperation, while Kuwait’s sustainability minister flagged desalination, wastewater and modern ag tech to bolster food security. Regional Stability & Farms: UN officials urged Israel to halt southern Syria incursions, citing damage to agricultural lands and restrictions on civilian access. Pakistan Mango Hit: AFP reports Pakistan’s mango exports could drop at least 30% this season as Gulf demand weakens and shipping costs rise.